Potential Impacts of Los Angles Firestorms on Residential Development in 2025 and Beyond

As I have discussed on numerous occasions over the past several years, new housing has not kept up with the demand in California and has continued to lead to an affordability crisis. The State Legislature in response has during the past 6 years passed many laws promoting affordable housing, making it more difficult for local government to stop certain forms of housing and removing some attempts to use CEQA to attack housing projects. It is not clear yet that any of these efforts have significantly increased the amount of housing and effectively deal with the affordability issue. One of the additional major factors on the price and number of housing units is the significant cost increases which occurred during the height of the Pandemic for lumber and other materials along with the lack of workers necessary to build the housing.

Now Los Angeles County, and most likely the entire Southern California, will face the impacts of the recent fires which destroyed more than 11,000 residential units, most of them single family homes. Already several efforts have been undertaken which will impact the rebuilding of these homes along with future development.

Most importantly, on February 6, 2025, Governor Newsom signed an executive order to improve the hardening of communities and wildlife strategies statewide. The Governor made it clear that his is a work in progress and California will keep updating its standards in the most fire-prone areas.

Among the provisions of the executive order are:

• Directs the State Board of Forestry to accelerate its work to adopt regulations known as “Zone 0,” which will require an ember-resistant zone within 5 feet of structures located in the highest fire severity zones in the state.

“Zone 0” regulations under development for new and existing construction would require an ember-resistant zone within the immediate 5-feet of structures in local area Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones in Local Responsibility Areas, and Fire Hazard Severity Zones in State Responsibility Areas.

Zone 0 regulations would move forward this year in tandem with financial assistance and relief for homeowners, proposed in the Governor’s January Budget, and to be augmented by the California Conservation Corps supporting work in vulnerable communities and in coordination with local Fire Safe Councils. While it is anticipated that the regulations would apply to new construction upon taking effect, requirements for existing homes would likely be phased in over three years to allow homeowners to prepare and prioritize mitigations and secure financial assistance.

• Tasks the Office of the State Fire Marshal with releasing updated Fire Hazard Severity Zone maps for areas under local government responsibility, adding 1.4 million new acres of land into the two higher tiers of fire severity, which will update building and local planning requirements for these communities statewide.

To ensure future resiliency against urban firestorms, local government planners and developers will have to factor in wildfire-hardening requirements in building planning, design, and construction within nearly 2.3 million acres of land in areas where local governments are responsible for wildfire prevention and response, known as local responsibility areas.

The release of updated Fire Hazard Severity Zones for Local Responsibility Area maps would identify new areas where new development is required to adhere to the highest standards of wildfire resilient building codes and land-use planning. These new zones and maps would add approximately 1.4 million new acres of land into the two higher tiers of fire hazard severity. Specifically, they would expand current wildfire building resiliency requirements in the High-Fire Hazard Severity Zone to approximately 1.16 million new acres, and they would expand both current wildfire building and local planning resiliency requirements in the Very High- Fire Hazard Severity Zone to approximately 247,000 new acres.

The release of these updated zones and maps, which are expected to be released one region at a time beginning in Northern California, would begin a 120-day clock for local government jurisdictions to adopt local ordinances incorporating the State Fire Marshal’s recommendations.

The release of these Local Responsibility Area maps would follow last year’s release of equivalent updated zones and maps in the State Responsibility Area, and follow months of planning discussions, including consultation with insurance providers who have developed their own models to determine risk, premiums and coverage that are independent of the state’s Fire Hazard Severity Zone maps.

• Requires the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) and the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) to work with local, federal and tribal partners on improvements to the Federal resource ordering system for wildfire response.

Overall, the state has more than doubled investments in wildfire prevention and landscape resilience efforts, providing more than $2.5 billion in wildfire resilience since 2020, with an additional $1.5 billion from the 2024 Climate Bond to be committed beginning this year for proactive projects that protect communities from wildfire and promote healthy natural landscapes. Of note, since 2021, the State has made strategic investments in at least 61 fuels reduction projects near the Palisades and Eaton fire perimeters through projects treated over 14,500 acres.

The Newsom Administration has invested $2 billion to support CAL FIRE operations, a 47% increase since 2018, which has helped build CAL FIRE from 5,829 positions to 10,741 in that same period, and the Administration is now implementing shorter workweeks for state firefighters to prioritize firefighter well-being while adding 2,400 additional state firefighters to CAL FIRE’s ranks over the next five years.

In addition to the Governor’s Executive Order, the cost of fire insurance, which was already a crisis, can be expected to become even more so with the fire losses from the most recent fires.

Finally, here are a few key points outlining how the LA fires might further impact new residential approvals:

• Increased scrutiny of development in high-risk areas:

Local governments may become more cautious about approving new housing projects in areas identified as having high wildfire risk, potentially leading to restrictions on development in certain zones.

• Stricter building codes:

New homes built in fire-prone areas will likely be subject to stricter building codes requiring fire-resistant materials and construction techniques to mitigate damage from future wildfires.

• Environmental review process changes:

The Governor may issue executive orders to temporarily suspend some environmental review requirements to expedite the rebuilding process in fire-damaged areas.

• Focus on rebuilding destroyed homes:

Priority will likely be given to approving permits for rebuilding homes destroyed in the fires, potentially leading to faster approvals in those specific areas.

• Cost of Materials and Availability of Employees

Cost of materials, and their availability, will continue to be an issue of concern. Added to this will be whether or not there will be a labor force needed for both the replacement housing and the new housing.

• Community opposition:

Some communities might resist new development in fire-prone areas, leading to potential legal challenges and public debate.

In Conclusion, the LA fires will only exasperate our existing housing crisis in California and we will all need to be attentive that proposals can not only help those who want to rebuild but the much needed new housing which we need.